Iran’s Military Power Subject to New U.S. Study Used for China

Posted 11 6 2009 10:48AM

Nov. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s military will be subject forthe first time to the kind of U.S. assessment reserved forChina’s expanding forces as lawmakers seek a more accurateanalysis of the Persian Gulf oil power’s strengths andstrategy.

Congress ordered an annual report on Iranian militarygoals and capabilities, including the country’s missile andnuclear programs, in a provision tucked into a 1,200-pagemeasure authorizing defense spending. President Barack Obamasigned the bill into law last week.

The demand for the analysis reflects lawmakers’ concernsthat periodic U.S. intelligence estimates focusing on Iran’snuclear efforts are too limited in scope. The U.S. and nationsin Europe and the Middle East see current and potential threatsfrom Iran, including its support of designated terrorist groupssuch as Hamas and Hezbollah, interference in Iraq andAfghanistan, and a push to dominate the Gulf.

“Iran’s actions pose a threat to peace and stability intheir region, and these have repercussions for globalsecurity,” said California Representative Howard “Buck”McKeon, the top Republican on the House Armed ServicesCommittee. He and Kansas Republican Sam Brownback in the Senateproposed the provision and won Democratic support for itsinclusion in the defense bill.

“Our hope is that our nation and countries around theworld will gain better insight on the true intentions ofIran,â€

The legislation requires the first report to be producedby Jan. 30 in classified and unclassified versions.

Obama Overtures

The timing may coincide with increasing pressure on Obamato toughen his approach on Iran should a policy based ondiplomatic overtures fail to win concessions. The U.S. isworking with France, the U.K., Germany, Russia, and China topersuade Iran to stop enriching uranium, a process that canlead to nuclear energy production or a nuclear bomb.

Committees in the House and Senate last week backedseparate legislation to further restrict trade with Iran byimposing sanctions on companies that supply the country withrefined petroleum products. While Iran is the world’s fourth-largest oil producer, limited refining capacity forces it toimport about a third of its gasoline.

Congress and the administration also are consideringfurther sanctions on Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, an armof the military that also has become a political and economicforce.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the United Nations nuclearwatchdog agency, said yesterday that negotiations intended toturn Iranian enriched uranium into fuel for a Tehran medicalreactor provide a chance to resolve the dispute over thenuclear effort.

‘Fleeting’ Opportunity

“This is a unique and fleeting opportunity to reversecourse from confrontation to cooperation and should thereforenot be missed,” ElBaradei said in his final report to the UNGeneral Assembly before leaving the Vienna-based InternationalAtomic Energy Agency after 10 years as director-general.

In Washington, House Armed Services Committee Chairman IkeSkelton said he endorsed the requirement for an annual reporton Iran’s military because the U.S. needs a better handle onIran’s general military strength.

“That country has potential to cause great mischief,”said Skelton, a Missouri Democrat.

In addition to Iran’s nuclear and missile programs, theanalysis must include the size and effectiveness of Iran’sconventional forces and the Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force.

Power Trends

Congress wants details indicating trends in the Gulfnation’s strategy “that would be designed to establish Iran asthe leading power in the Middle East and to enhance theinfluence of Iran in other regions of the world.”

The administration also will have to examine Iran’sstrategy regarding other countries in the region, especiallyIsrael, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Afghanistan, SaudiArabia, Turkey, Bahrain, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates,Armenia and Azerbaijan.

“This report will help us understand the comprehensivethreat Iran poses,” Brownback said in an e-mailed response toquestions. The analysis will create “a much clearer picture ofIran’s capabilities and how it intends to use them.”

Congress has required a similar report since 2000 onChina, which has criticized the practice.

‘Disruptive’ Technology

The most recent report, issued by the Pentagon in March,found that China is shifting the balance of power in Asia bycontinuing to develop “disruptive” military technology,including anti-satellite and cyber capabilities. The ForeignMinistry in Beijing called the analysis a “gross interventionin China’s international affairs.”

The U.S. has long been concerned that China aims tothreaten the American military presence in the Asia-Pacificregion. China recently resumed military talks with the Obamaadministration after cutting off dialogue 18 months ago whenthe U.S. signaled its intent to sell arms to Taiwan.

The Iran report might be more effective were it to includeupdates on diplomatic negotiations and Iran’s compliance withUN Security Council resolutions and the atomic energy agency,said Michael Elleman, a visiting senior fellow at theInternational Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington.

“One needs to examine the entire picture, not just themilitary side of it,” said Elleman, who has consulted onweapons programs for the UN and the U.S. and is leading anindependent study of Iran’s missile program. “It could havebeen much sharper language and more balanced if they tried toaddress the entire issue.”

To contact the reporter on this story:Viola Gienger in Washington at vgienger@bloomberg.net .